Beverage seasonality: five rules to stop being caught out by the summer peak

Why beverage seasonality is so brutal

The beverage aisle has one of the most pronounced seasonal curves in the whole grocery category. Sales can double between January and July, and on some references they triple. The main drivers:

• Weather — every day above 25 °C produces an immediate consumption spike on soft drinks and water
• School holidays — picnics, barbecues and travel push family consumption sharply upward
• Sporting events — the Tour de France, Roland-Garros, the World Cup and the Euros all lift volumes
• Festivals and local events — June to August is a dense calendar

The difficulty is that this seasonality hits every distributor at exactly the same moment. When you need more Coca-Cola, so does your competitor. Conventional suppliers saturate, lead times stretch, and stockouts multiply.

Rule 1: build your calendar in February

The worst mistake is waiting until May to start thinking about summer. By then it is already too late — serious suppliers have committed their summer production.

From February or March, build a six-month forecast by cross-referencing three inputs: your prior-year sales month by month and reference by reference, seasonal weather outlooks, and your promotional calendar. Share that calendar with your supplier so they can plan their own logistics around it.

Rule 2: secure a buffer stock in April

On the most seasonal references — Fanta Orange first, followed by Sprite and the seasonal Red Bull Editions — build a buffer stock from April covering 15 to 20 days of forecast July sales.

Yes, this ties up working capital temporarily. It is still cheaper than stockouts, emergency orders at punitive rates, and the loss of confidence among your own customers.

Rule 3: diversify suppliers on critical references

Never depend on a single supplier for your most strategic references. On Coca-Cola Classic 33cl you should have at least two validated sources able to take over if one fails.

Martigane can be your primary supplier — that is what creates depth in a commercial relationship — but keep a fallback for extreme peaks. This is simply risk management.

Rule 4: use summer to test new references

Summer is, paradoxically, the best moment to introduce new references to your range. Overall consumption is high, rotation is fast, and competitive promotions are less aggressive than in winter.

Seasonal Red Bull Editions — watermelon, tropical — are particularly well placed to generate consumer trial in summer, as are Fanta's rotating flavours. A mixed pallet lets you bring in these novelties without committing to a full pallet of a single reference.

Rule 5: anticipate the autumn from mid-August

The classic September trap: overstocked on summer references, particularly Fanta, which stop moving, while under-anticipating the back-to-school references such as Coca-Cola Classic 1.5L and Red Bull Original.

From mid-August, recalibrate your mix. Reduce Fanta orders. Increase family PET bottles, since weekend sales grow once term starts. Prepare the transition into the autumn and winter season. The best buyers make their margin on the way out of summer, not during it.

Seasonal support from Martigane

Customers on our seasonal programme get specific follow-up:

• A tailored sourcing plan built with you in February and March
• Advance alerts ahead of each sector-wide demand peak
• Logistics priority when the market tightens — you are served before spot orders
• Monthly recalibration of the plan against your actual sales

Few food wholesalers offer this; most simply sell volume against spot demand. Our view is that beverage seasonality is too important to be left to chance.